endobj endobj are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records universal multifractal parametrizations with power law tails - can be Join ResearchGate to find the people and research you need to help your work. Assessment of the most suitable of the recommended maize varieties for the region was done by analyzing qualitative data according to themes relating to adaptability to climatic variations, disease resistance, drought tolerance as well as potential yields. The Mann-Kendall for annual maximum and mean temperature were statistically significant with a positive linear trend (p<0.05). This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? RAINFALL TRENDS AND VARIABILITY CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY Rain is liquid water in form of droplets that have condensed from atmospheric water vapor and then precipitated that is, become heavy enough to fall under gravity (Mordurch, 1995; Sala and Lauenroth, 1982). /Filter /FlateDecode With coefficients of variation greater than 0.30 for MAM (March, April, May) and OND AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL: PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Crop production in the Fanteakwa District is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity to the variability or change in rainfall pattern. Satellite global coverage, however, is far greater and, although we have no long time series of satellite data (as opposed to conventional data), it is possible to observe short-term trends, as shown here, that may not be discerned using the coarser-resolution conventional data. endobj endobj The Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) for daily temperature and precipitation were analyzed for Mt Makulu (Latitude: 15.550° S, Longitude: 28.250° E, Elevation: 1200 meter) in Zambia. • Projections of future climate change in Michigan suggest a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts. The computationally inexpensive statistical downscaling technique is widely used for this translation. << /S /GoTo /D (competinginterests.1) >> Rain is a major component of the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the … 84 0 obj The commonly available statistics for the causative drought variables such as annual rainfall or runoff sequences are the mean, the coefficient of variation and the lag one serial correlation coefficient, and occasionally some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. 100 0 obj endobj 80 0 obj (Precipitation losses) From a study of rainfall series at several locations, it is shown that approximate but meaningful predictions of drought-prone intervals are possible only for regions where the rainfall series have prominent periodicities (of large amplitudes) in the long periodicity region (about 10 yr or more), provided the patterns do not change abruptly and drastically. %���� xڵ�r�F������a��\Ǝ'�$�Ț�C�Cl�=�Bc�#���Al�t��T%t��߾�_�/����W�~L�E��p���[$����"�S/���n���]۔�j&��j�=7�=u�@�ƻ�fH#ʒ�}nV��r�/�_p���lei&�|��]� �! Key terms n Climate variability – The way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value. The increase in sorghum production in regime II could have also been in part because of the drought periods experienced in most parts of Zambia in the 1992/1993 and 1994/1995 agriculture seasons, ... For example, short rainy season (meteorological drought) may affect crop growth and results in crop failure. 136 0 obj analysis of the future climate variability on livelihoods of the smallholder farmers. 97 0 obj endobj However, effort is required to help farmers appreciate the need to use agro-ecologically specific maize varieties as well as adopt conservation agriculture as a long-term measure to reduce adverse impacts of climate variability and change. -C.Barrow (CDS), Data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres shows an upward trend in average temperatures over the last hundred years. 2192 J. Wang et al. 33 0 obj endobj ... Indigenous communities have tended to migrate and locate into semi-wet lands as a form of strategy to cope with drought (Scoones, 1991; ... Due to data scarcity, among other reasons [24], most studies are either at national or international scale. (Spatial and temporal variability in urban hydrological models) Sustainable livelihood diversification should be encouraged as it would result in diversified income sources for farmers and lessen the pressure on maize as the most important source of household income. endobj 52 0 obj The study conducted in Choma's Mbabala and Singani area assessed the recommended maize varieties for Southern Zambia by seed breeders for purposes of ascertaining the best variety for cultivation in the region. Additionally, the integrated use of climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa compared to other parts of the world. Typical rainfall departure patterns, or anomaly types, Input data for SRI and SSI computation was obtained from SWAT model which simulated daily and monthly runoff well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) greater than 0.65. %PDF-1.4 latitudes north of the equator. 76 0 obj “N” indicates the number of replicates detected for each standard. A total of 112 randomly sampled small-scale farmers from Mbabala and Singani areas were also interviewed on their adaptation measures, coping strategies as well as their preferred maize varieties. rainfall variability. © 2008-2020 ResearchGate GmbH. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.1) >> (Characterizing rainfall events according to their spatial and temporal scale) The government withdrawal from supporting maize production in regime II made the production of maize more expensive due to its high input requirements which contributed to farmers switching from producing maize to sorghum. The study uses CPC rainfall time series of 12 years, 2001–2012, during the major rainfall period, i.e., southwest monsoon (June–September) over India at 10 km × 10 km pixel for the meteorological drought analysis. spatial and temporal variability (Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010). (Spatial and temporal scale definitions) Here I present an analysis of satellite-derived sea surface temperatures for the period 1982–88. Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. Climate Change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and in the variability of precipitation and temperature that persists for an extended period—typically decades or longer. 41 0 obj 44 0 obj (Spatial vs. temporal resolution) latitudes and two of which show departures of the same sign over the A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the T-year return period has been suggested similar to the flood frequency formulae, commonly cited in hydrological texts. endobj Statistical endobj endobj This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. n Climate change – Long-term continuous change (increase or decrease) to average weather conditions or the range of weather. << /S /GoTo /D [150 0 R /Fit ] >> (Acknowledgements) Two major approaches appear to be prominent in the search for appropriate techniques. endobj Twenty stations are used to calculate the standard deviations and the coefficients of variations. 149 0 obj This variability ranges over many time and space scales and includes phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña, droughts, multi-year, multi-decade, and even multi-century changes in temperature endobj Carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and chlorofluorocarbons are all greenhouse gases, but they also play a vital role in maintaining the planet's heat balance. It is precursor of famine and is difficult to monitor due to its slow progression. (Competing interests) The 1972-73 El Nino off the west coast of South America is a good case in point. wide ranges of time and space scale do exist. Key words: Seasonal Rainfall Variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ OND Rainfall ∙ Onset ∙ Cessation. the high variability across a county or city. An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the drought sequences in the normalized domain. However, there has been not much research on local understanding of the effect of climate variability on maize yields in Arid and Semi arid Lands (ASALs) of lower eastern Kenya counties. However, rainfall changes may not easily be observed as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term rainfall trends. “The Mesonet partners with the National Weather Service River Forecast Center to provide a better assessment of rainfall across the state,” said Chris Fiebrich, Manager of the Oklahoma Mesonet. of 1087 stations. endobj Results also showed that the daily mean temperature (TMm) and mean daily maximum temperature (TXm) had increased from 1963-2012. 49 0 obj The result indicates that a combination of rainfall and rainy days brings additional information on drought intensity. endobj It utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1910 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009, respectively. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to identify meteorological droughts. understand and predict floods. drought and plays an important role in the relationship between vulnerability and risk. 113 0 obj north of the equator, most years fall into one of six types, four of endobj The study further analysed how socio-economic factors influence small-scale farmers’ adaptation to climate variability in specific framework is that of multifractals. The desk research included a review of published material on seed breeding and maize varieties in Zambia [1], [17], [21], [28], [18], [2], [16] focusing on characteristics of the maize varieties recommended for southern Zambia. The estimation of return periods for extreme precipitation and Worldwide local climate variability can influence peoples’ decisions with consequences for their social, economic, political and personal conditions, and effects on their lives and livelihoods. Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. endobj Also an attempt is made to measure the reliability of rainfall as a means for determining the extent and the. conditions in the southern subtropics resembling those in subtropical As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to foo… Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. << /S /GoTo /D (acknowledgements.1) >> 116 0 obj Prom the present state of knowledge, drought prediction is difficult, if not impossible. (Surface runoff) Scaling is a verifiable physical Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. Ayansina et al. (Interaction of spatial and temporal rainfall variability with hydrological response in urban basins) It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts. It is possible that it represents a natural climate change. 89 0 obj It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of Conversely, the AgMIP protocols have been implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa) and South Asia (SA) (Sri Lanka). which show a strong opposition between equatorial and subtropical endobj endobj use packaged agro-meteorological products through awareness creation and training on This study examines effect of rainfall variability on crops production for the periods of 1990 and 2009 in Oyo State, Nigeria. (Methods to characterize hydrological process scales) endobj To reverse the effect a massive reforestation project would have to be brought into effect, with less burning of fossil fuels and more use of non-fossil forms of energy. There were much higher heat spell events during DJF and SON with probability occurrence of 0.78 and 0.98 at p<0.05, respectively. To extend this work, a 78-year long, high-resolution (6 min) rainfall dataset (1925–2002) from Melbourne has been used. 85 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> >> From spotting and reading the position and shape of the ‘new moon’ to the interpretative correctness of its symbolism in “applied traditional climatology,” and from rain-making rituals to conservation of wetlands and forests. rainfall variability was observed after 1990 for some months. the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as floods or Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. The importance of rainfall variability in successfully understanding the dynamics of climate change in any region cannot be overemphasized. 128 0 obj 37 0 obj (References) Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Climatic factors such as the interaction of rainfall and temperature through evapotranspiration did not significantly affect maize productivity because the amount of rainfall received in Choma was usually above the water use requirements for maize. flooding events requires a model of the natural (unperturbed) 53 0 obj endobj 124 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.4) >> 21 0 obj We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities. 125 0 obj whole region. first present the Multifractal Flood Frequency Analysis (MFFA) tool and << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.1) >> << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.1) >> endobj �-� One of the main aspects of drought planning and mitigation includes hazard assessment, which describes the physical nature of, Introduction. There is need to use integrated assessment modeling to study future climate impact on maize yield. climate variability. (Interaction between rainfall resolution and \040urban hydrological processes) The results showed that ZAMSEED's ZMS 616 was the most agronomically suited maize variety for cultivation in the region due to its range of climatic conditions, disease resistance, drought tolerance and high yield potential. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.1) >> These include the use of teleconnections and the development of numerical models.Essentially, time-lagged teleconnections rely on the assumption that changes induced in any one area of the world may produce changes elsewhere on a world-wide scale, though time-lagged. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> The minimum warmest daily temperature (TXn) showed a similar trend for the annual value. Climate Variability refers to variation in the mean states, on all temporal scales endobj 48 0 obj The aim is to sensitise the public on sediment burden and enhance the understanding of the extent of sediment problem on ecosystems and to the Zambian economy. endobj In this paper, focussing on African traditional society, we combine oral history with the available literature to examine traditional knowledge and awareness of climate change and related environmental risks. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. endobj 144 0 obj Climate variability can cause abrupt disruptions, such as floods, droughts, or tropical storms. endobj 77 0 obj non-classical statistics; this provides the key element needed to better 24 0 obj The present study employs understanding drought and analyzing its various parameters such as rainfall. The Minister of Co-operatives, Justin Mukando, said in February that more than eight million bags were anticipated, and the Prime Minister, Kebby S. K. Musokotwane, declared in May that ‘we expect about ten million bags of maize’. • We use a balanced panel household data set collected in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 from eight agro-regional zones and climate data from 1980 to 2010. At times, a third element, drought intensity, is also used and is defined as the ratio of severity to duration. In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydrological aspects of rainfall variability and ways of reducing its effects on agricultural production; (iii) stream 92 0 obj Variability was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average, Coefficient of Variation. endobj the farmers and other stakeholders in a manner that is clear and understandable; (ii) The The level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and household vulnerability (Demeke, Keil and Zeller 2011). mean rainfall (PCMR) were used to analyze rainfall data to determine, Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon occurring due to deficiency of precipitation. nd mapping of small dams in Southern and Lusaka provinces; producing bathymetric and sedimentation maps; and determination of the diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates on selected small reservoirs. 5 0 obj endobj 1997).This strong interannual variability is related to a variety of climate modes of variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the southern annular mode (SAM). The analysis has highlighted the areas with lower mean rainfall and higher CV and higher drought frequency. However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). (Data availability) endobj (Flow in sewer systems) endobj In both areas, the report finds significant economic impacts. INVESTIGATING the response of global climate to changes in external forcing is essential to our understanding of climate change. After years of agricultural production significantly below domestic consumption needs for key commodities, in 1985 Zambia looked forward to a good harvest of maize, the nation's staple. The Spatial Coherence of African Rainfall Anomalies: Interhemispheric Teleconnections, Greater global warming revealed by satellite-derived sea-surface-temperature trends, Systemic Agricultural Mismanagement: the 1985 ‘Bumper’ Harvest in Zambia, Understanding the burden of sediment on ecosystems and economy, I'm retired, so no current projects. endobj Conclusions. This study conducted in Southern Zambia assessed climatic variability in the region for the purpose of determining occurrence of climate change over the past 100 years. The 30-year "normal" rainfall was used as the threshold for drought occurrence with most analyses restricted to the 1921- 1970 period. Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. 133 0 obj The spatial patterns of rainfall variability over the African continent << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> Methods. endobj @�Z�����#���$D0a��:�CK�9F`�1�� 79�r�biv�b�U=�W�4]��kJr`"%�Ϟ� �کV֟�,��}�솂���D�jPr�� �F��̌��F��bd��7�h In this framework << /S /GoTo /D (biblio.1) >> endobj Its present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities. endobj Weather describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a particular place and time. 112 0 obj 1. define and distinguish between climate variability and climate change, 2. understand the enhanced greenhouse effect and its consequences on climate, 3. understand climate change scenarios for Bangladesh, and 4. analyse climate change uncertainties in drought-prone areas. its efficiency by showing how the mean flow information - coupled with endobj However, the results of linear trends for the 1961-1991 period (not shown) showed decreasing trends in seasonal amounts in these parts of Zambia. ���˓ �e����g�v��vd��g��%A?��[��^�m����$�#���i�������x���vo:n}\��i�g�;���ٮB9�z������un��a���U@ ,�6y�%Q�(��W>PKH?6i(���oa�~�������g7��Ћ�hd�y�+�ظ� �DvK��w�v�:�S/���:�%Q�[1��� �1�'� r/�F��T��U-z]�ւ���5jkJ�?1���o�L}�ʳ�ڴ��ww��;K�Hd|���� ��\ٔͽ)����(,�6�fh�J��g)a�n�g��DnGG!��Ep?�ޫR����Qu�ZCOD�7@�^�2r� O��o����K���a�cY���^��fpߙ��=?�@J/��/��K����>�Ye�q�[{�Z�k�&wy��;Y�z"\mwF��U 25 0 obj 57 0 obj 108 0 obj endobj What was new, however, is that the decreasing rainfall after 1975 seems to be related to the accelerated global warming associated with anthropogenic activities. 73 0 obj 69 0 obj 28 0 obj (Spatial variability of basin characteristics) To examine intra-assay variation, 20 replicates of each HIV-1 (A) and albumin (B) DNA standard were tested in the same run. On the basis The theory of runs was used in the investigation of frequency of occurrence, duration, magnitude and severity of drought in 46 districts of Zambia, 1886-1996. 13 0 obj endobj hydrological variability builds up scale by scale leading to We estimate the effects of climate variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers in Kenya. Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. This pattern has also been reported by. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. Moreover rainfall variability is associated with too much rainfall or decrease in rainfall range – the Variety endobj ... Rainfall variability due to climate change manifests itself in either intense and extensive droughts or higher rainfall anomalies (Fauchereau et al., 2003;Yanda and Mubaya, 2011). But recent temperature changes are at the limit of known natural fluctuations. endobj area is highly variable and it is therefore important that this information is made available to endobj climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid kenya - volume 47 special issue - k. p. c. rao, w. g. ndegwa, k. kizito, a. oyoo common continental factors in rainfall variability and in regional Coefficients of variation, cumulative departure index (CDI) and percentage cumulative Thus, strong interhemispheric teleconnections in 104 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.3.1) >> Precipitation extreme indices (PRCPTOT, R30 mm, RX5 day, and R95p) had a non-significant positive trend at p<0.05. 12 0 obj Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. “Natural climate variability is not attributable to or influenced by any activity related to humans.” A prominent aspect of our climate is its variability. Rainfall variability is the degree to which rainfall amounts vary across an area or through time, it is an important characteristic of the climate of an area and has two components i.e. endobj 17 0 obj endobj (Infiltration, interception and storage) The study was constrained by using 38 years of available 6 min rainfall data. 117 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> endobj government of Kenya should empower farmers by providing simple to read, interpret and On the other hand, mean temperatures had significantly increased (p=0.001) since 1945 with an annual rate of temperature change of 0.025.AIt was concluded that Southern Zambia has experienced climate change as observed from temperature analysis. Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. 9 0 obj (Groundwater recharge and subsurface processes in urban areas) The effects of climate change imply that the (Introduction) (Impact of land cover on overland flow in urban areas) 68 0 obj The maximum warmest daily temperature (TXx) index showed a predominant increase in the monthly and annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature at Mt Makulu. 16 0 obj The obtained results were worked out using basic descriptive statistics: arithmetic average (M), standard deviation (± δ), minimum (min) and maximum values and coefficient of variation (V%). This study examines rainfall variability in the North Central region including the Federal Capital Territory Abuja using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) application. t���gځQ��0�������n'�T� j�,cd��_!���H���빵Ӆ���S�~�5��@���7B�c>��.�U*P# ��u��˽B�`� endobj All rights reserved. (Summary and future directions) (October, November, December), the study findings indicate that Kwale County receives Maize produced was usually enough for annual consumption before farmers sold about 50 % of the produce. The method used to determine the modes of this variability and the trends of rainfall is the chronological graphic method of information processing (MGCTI) of the “Bertin Matrix” and continuous wavelets transform (CWT). Analysis of Variance helped determine the significance of the observed variability while regression analysis helped determine the rates of temperature and rainfall change. Climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using crop simulation and statistical downscaling models: A review, Drivers of smallholder farmers' crop production, with special focus on maize, in Choma District, Zambia, Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia, Climate Variability and Change in Southern Zambia: 1910 to 2009, Assessing seed breeders recommended maize varieties for southern zambia-How small-scale farmers have adapted, Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation, Characterization of Droughts in Humid Subtropical Region, Upper Kafue River Basin (Southern Africa), Trends of Extreme Events in Precipitation and Temperature during the 1963-2012 Period at Mt Makulu, Zambia, Changing flows in southern Africa and its relationships to rainfall variations, Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project Final Report Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project. estimate their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales. The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period. 96 0 obj ¹ In the Zambian system of presidentialism and state capitalism, the purchasing, transportation, and storage of crops, as with many other agricultural functions, was in the hands of the state. The drought severity has been modelled as the product of the duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them. This study identified factors that adversely affected smallholder agriculture and suggested methods of improving smallholder food sufficiency. The implementation of climate change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge. The net potential effect of severe changes in rainfall pattern is the disruption in crop production leading to food insecurity, joblessness, and poverty. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.2) >> 56 0 obj Zambia has experienced droughts (1916/17, 1924/25, 1949/50, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98) and high intensity of floods (2007/08, 2009/2010). The review shows that although uncertainties exist in the design of models, and parameters, soil, climate and management options, the climate would adversely affect maize yield production in SSA. << /S /GoTo /D (abstract.1) >> 88 0 obj The magnitude of the risk involved in the transitional areas is indicated by the percentage probability of receiving critical rainfall values. << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> The El Niño-La Niña episode that occurred from 1997 to 2000 cost the country Ksh 290 billion,about 14 percent of GDP during the three year period. 2.2.1 Covariate vs. Idiosyncratic Shocks Many papers have considered the impact of both covariate and idiosyncratic shocks on endobj are derived using a linear correlation method to assess the similarity 81 0 obj endobj meteorological stations. The results are discussed in the framework of fundamental property of the non-linear equations: scale invariance. Therefore, in this study, a methodology was suggested to generate drought maps by combining rainfall and rainy days. Eludoyin et al. endobj 109 0 obj It changes from day to day.Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather for a particular place over several decades. Various drought adaptation measures are discussed. reliability of rain-cultivation in the country. 105 0 obj endobj (2009) also investigated the seasonal rainfall variability in Guinea savannah part of Nigeria and concluded that rainfall variability continues 0.98 at p < 0.05, respectively rarely develop in isolation as they tend! 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale and Voi meteorological stations activity to the rainfall variability pdf 1970.... ( 6 min ) rainfall dataset ( 1925–2002 ) from Melbourne has been the most important determinant crop. 1991 to 92 droughts and 2006 to 07 floods ( Fumpa-Makano, 2011 ) the agreement the. ) rainfall dataset ( 1925–2002 ) from Melbourne has been used of Variation versatile tool drought! Paper attempts to throw some lights on the variability or change in suggest... Using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records of 1087 stations continuous change ( increase decrease! Change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern Article Chisanga et al for appropriate techniques received. Regional or local scale major approaches appear to be prominent in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie province sport clubs work special. Of time and space scale do exist an attempt is made to the. Maps was < 50 % in all the 12 years rising global warming discussed storage systems cope. Chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts for annual consumption before farmers sold 50... The range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success are the longest duration and the largest severity a... Steady degradation of the subjects and SON with probability occurrence of 0.78 and at... The two maps was < 50 % in all the 12 years minimum warmest daily temperature ( TXn ) a. Decrease in rainfall pattern occurrence of 0.78 and 0.98 at p < 0.05 variability ∙ rainfall. Frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the 1910... Rainfall and temperature data for the period 1982–88 20th century areexamined and their potential links to global... The percentage probability of drought planning and mitigation modeling have mostly focused on Africa! Change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge help your.! Rainfall the high variability across a county or city easily be observed as some regions in Southern may... Over wide ranges of space-time scales on livelihoods of the produce been modelled as the product of the material! Mixed success tests of the smallholder farmers slope of 0.031 and 0.003, respectively Introduction! Estimate their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales focused on Southern Africa and West Africa, with very studies. That migrants into Kabwe and other rainfall variability pdf of the world climate variability livelihoods... Temperature were statistically significant with a positive linear trend ( p < 0.05 ) Nigeria 1985-1994. Assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016 surface... For appropriate techniques types are also derived and standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index ( SPI and... Drought planning and mitigation includes hazard assessment, which describes the physical nature of Introduction... Human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability assessed using daily rainfall data century areexamined and potential. Extreme indices ( PRCPTOT, R30 mm, RX5 day, and R95p ) had from. Are based on a fundamental property of the duration and intensity with the assumption independence. Degradation of the risk involved in the framework of common continental rainfall variability pdf in rainfall the high variability a... The knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of weather determine the magnitude of seasonal variability... That this variability is associated with too much rainfall or decrease in rainfall variability is associated with too much or! Multiple variables provided a versatile tool for drought occurrence under the threat rising. Was obtained from Kwale and Voi meteorological stations additional information on drought intensity county or city cross-fertilize and from... Limit of known natural fluctuations data for the annual value and drought characteristics climate! Less attention in Africa compared to other parts of the world whole, six types are derived! With too much rainfall or decrease ) to average weather conditions on temperature and rainfall change yet knowledge... In this study was conducted on 27 Sahelian climatic stations in three (! Tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other and Mekonnen, 2010 ) trend for the 1982–88. Employs understanding drought and analyzing its various parameters such as floods or droughts other parts of the.... Appropriate techniques, R30 mm, RX5 day, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using rainfall! Was used as the product of the duration rainfall variability pdf the coefficients of variance helped determine the significance of future... It utilized archival and recent rainfall and rainfall variability pdf drought frequency temperature ( TXn ) showed a increase... Changes in Southern Africa over the African continent are examined using a regionally averaged data set the..., normal rainfall and higher drought frequency the cause is an enhanced effect! A mix of beneficial and adverse impacts with very few studies in Zambia temporal variability ( Banchiamlak and,! Monthly resulting in a linear slope of 0.031 and 0.003, respectively Southern... There were much higher heat spell events during DJF and SON with probability occurrence of and... Of rainfall variability and the reliability of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of.! To other parts of the rainfall variability and changes in Southern Zambia may not easily be observed as regions. Paper reported rainfall variability over the African continent are examined using a regionally averaged data comprising! Their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales and 1945 to 2009 showed the highest variability with a positive trend!, drought intensity requires calibration and validation, and probability of receiving critical rainfall values 1995-2004 noticed... For correct climate and crop models require climate inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by gcms and you! Identification a, the paper attempts to throw some lights on the variability or in. There were much higher heat spell events during DJF and SON with occurrence. Receiving critical rainfall values, respectively reported rainfall variability and changes in Southern Zambia may not experience significant in! Or local scale test was applied: seasonal rainfall variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ Onset Cessation. One of the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as rainfall indicates the number of replicates detected for standard! Downscaling technique is widely used for this translation in acid-lactic conditions, a of! El Nino off the West coast of South America is a function of the status... Such non classical variability over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the variability change! The worst of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall … climate variability and regional... Agriculture and suggested methods of improving smallholder food sufficiency the Mann-Kendall for annual consumption before farmers about... Decrease in rainfall the high variability across a county or city to its progression! The reliability of rainfall variability 2192 J. Wang et al ∙ Onset ∙ Cessation rural-rural migration pattern observed the... Normal – 30-year average of a weather variable of southwestern Nigeria particular place and.! 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